When people forecast an Airbnb, most use one average nightly rate (often called ADR, average daily rate) and one average occupancy for the whole year. It's quick. But because short-term rentals are seasonal, that average hides the months you could lose money.
Here's one example property, forecast both ways. Net profit means what's left each month after all running costs.
Net profit each month: the yearly average vs month by month
Example property, launched in October. Net profit is what is left after all monthly running costs.
View as a table
| Month | Net profit |
|---|---|
| Oct | £1,800 |
| Nov | £1,800 |
| Dec | -£1,005 |
| Jan | -£1,005 |
| Feb | -£1,005 |
| Mar | £1,800 |
| Apr | £1,800 |
| May | £1,800 |
| Jun | £4,260 |
| Jul | £4,260 |
| Aug | £4,260 |
| Sep | £1,800 |
Same property, same year, different story
Both forecasts add up to the same profit over the year. The difference is when the money arrives. Launch in October and the average never warns you that your first winter runs at a loss, or that earning back your set-up costs takes three months longer than you planned.
That's the gap that catches out new hosts: not a bad deal, but a deal they couldn't see clearly.
Forecast the dips before you sign
The Prop AnalytiX Analysis Extension captures an accurate reflection of ADR and occupancy for every month from PriceLabs or Property Market Intel in one click. The Calculator then shows your profit and ROI term month by month, with every cost included.
Step-by-step guides: using PriceLabs · using Property Market Intel
See your property's seasonal swings
Capture every month's ADR and occupancy in one click, and forecast your real ROI term.
No payment required · takes under 2 minutes to set up